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◇-CUwcuogSTFNCQPR-Harris(1/26-10:37)No.40188
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40188CUwcuogSTFNCQPRHarris E-mail URL1/26-10:37
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All of the above would suggest there is little likelihood that the 10-year yield will rise above 4% anytime in the near future. In fact, we would suggest that the yield on the 10-year is unlikely to rise above 3.50% over the next 12-18 months and we consider a move to 4% or slightly higher as an unlikely event over the next two years. If we are correct, more than half the increase in yields is already behind us. It has been a sharp and painful move higher, but continued monetary ease coupled with weak growth is likely to place a cap on the 10-year and something below 4%.